NFL preseason Week 2 betting takeaways — Payments look Tremendous Bowl-ready, Ravens’ historic dominance, Bucs battling accidents
What extra are you able to say about John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens? They’ve now received 22 straight preseason video games (20-2 ATS). It is actually a head-scratching streak, given the notion that groups and followers disregard precise wins that don’t impression the common season standings. However right here we’re, observing a franchise that has constantly churned out “meaningless” victories since 2015, rewarding bettors who’ve maintained religion.
Not solely is the 20-2 ATS mark much more spectacular, however we would have to think about together with this run within the dialogue of sports activities domination. Usually, in sports activities parlance, I and lots of others typically reference the 1927 New York Yankees John Wood’s UCLA Bruins, 1985 Chicago Bears and 1985-86 Boston Celtics in varied conversations. Everyone knows the drill. Simply insert the analogy for instance a degree and hopefully illicit some laughter. Maybe the Ravens are the brand new gold commonplace. Simply kidding — type of.
With week two of the NFL preseason virtually over, listed here are my 5 greatest takeaways from a betting perspective:
1. Tampa Bay’s harm woes proceed
Tom Brady could defy Father Time however the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line is definitely human. The accidents preserve mounting and that does fear me for any type of futures. I believe it is time to fireplace on beneath 11.5 wins (beneath -130) and even beneath 50.5 factors within the season opener in opposition to the Dallas Cowboys. With this patchwork offensive line, any type of passing assault will seemingly be relegated to quick throws. The deep threats are simply so sophisticated, given all the things that has transpired. Plus, the 45-year-old quarterback has missed the final two weeks for causes but to be divulged. None of it feels proper so it is time to capitalize. Moreover, Tampa opens with highway video games in opposition to the Cowboys and Saints then hosts the Packers and Chiefs. A 1-3 or 0-4 begin isn’t that farfetched.
Moreover, with Tampa’s level unfold for the opener steadily dropping down from three factors, I like to recommend grabbing the Cowboys in a six-point teaser at a ebook that has Dallas +1.5. Some books at present have the TB -1, defending the home in opposition to these teasers. I don’t anticipate this line going again up, so it is smart to seize what worth you may in a quantity that many deem insignificant.
As for the AFC’s elite groups, it certain appears to be like like Allen and Mahomes haven’t developed any rust. Allen made his preseason debut and was flawless on an opening-drive landing. Even when he took a seat, the offense continued to look polished and explosive, scoring a TD on its first six drives. The Buffalo Bills seem like a worthy Tremendous Bowl favourite (+600), and I couldn’t fault anybody for laying 2.5 factors with them on the highway on the defending champs. After final yr’s playoff collapse in Kansas Metropolis, they’re motivated and targeted.
Elsewhere, the demise of the Kansas City Chiefs offense could also be a bit untimely. Sure, Mahomes misplaced Tyreek Hill however the quarterback remains to be a human cheat code. He continues to improvise within the pocket and miraculously and successfully unfold the ball to all his choices, making performs that solely he could make. It is actually exceptional and it’s fairly laughable monitoring the in-game betting market. For instance, with KC main 14-0 early within the second quarter on Saturday, the Chiefs had been 17-point favorites within the first half over Washington despite the fact that the Commanders had been about to obtain a kickoff. Usually that dwell line would both be 13.5 or 14.5. Mahomes simply skews all of the numbers. I might be very cautious fading this workforce and wagering on under 10.5 wins.
3. Dropping luck in Las Vegas
I’m bullish on the Las Vegas Raiders offense this season, even grabbing 20-1 odds that they are going to rating essentially the most factors. Nonetheless, after permitting 4 extra sacks on Saturday and now 13 in three video games, it is arduous to ascertain Derek Carr having a clear sufficient pocket to actually shine. Saturday solely bought worse when UFC president Dana White shared the backstory of Brady’s recruitment and the way shut Carr got here to dropping his job. New head coach Josh McDaniels now has some work to do, preserving Carr each emotionally and bodily. This could possibly be a enjoyable workforce and I perceive the optimism however it nonetheless appears like a last-place AFC West end.
4. Malik Willis continues to shine
Malik Willis turned in one other notable efficiency this weekend, which reinforces what I wrote final week. I extremely advocate taking part in beneath 3,525.5 passing yards for Ryan Tannehill (3,600.5 at DraftKings). Even when Willis doesn’t substitute him because the starter in some unspecified time in the future, the dual-threat QB figures to get a sequence or two every recreation to offer opposing defenses one other look and inject some life into Tennessee’s offense. I’ve related ideas if you will discover a Mitch Trubisky passing yards prop, given Kenny Pickett‘s sturdy efficiency this preseason.
5. Dwell betting? Proceed with warning
I routinely implore you to train excessive self-discipline and warning with in-game betting — and that’s emphasised through the NFL preseason. Everyone knows to anticipate the surprising within the preseason however the Cowboys took issues to a different stage Saturday night time. With a 19-point lead late within the third quarter, Mike McCarthy went for it on fourth-and-short on his personal 35-yard line. There isn’t any approach he would even contemplate that through the common season. QB Will Grier was flushed from the pocket and finally prolonged the drive. Then, with a 22-point lead about halfway by the fourth quarter, Dallas surprisingly tried a 61-yard FG. Brett Maher got here up quick.
We noticed different anomalies all through the weekend. For instance, with a 10-point lead with 1:21 remaining in Tampa Bay’s pink zone, the Tennessee Titans ran a move play that would have produced a landing. Throughout the common season, this may be thought-about poor kind and operating up the rating. Nonetheless, coaches perceive that groups are dealing with roster cuts and want to guage all positions. Each play is a chance to just do that.
And let’s hope preseason apathy is the excuse for Brian Daboll’s questionable choices. The Giants first-time head coach declined a 10-yard holding penalty, permitting Cincinnati to kick and make a 50-yard area purpose on 4th-and-16 in a scoreless recreation. Usually, a reliable coach would settle for the penalty and power the opponent to achieve sufficient yards on Third-and-26 for a area purpose try.
Think about yourselves warned, dwell bettors.